October 20, 2022
According to the data monitored by SunSirs, in the first half of October, the PP market corrected after rising, and the spot prices of wire drawing brands rose and fell. As of October 17, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders was about 8,166.67 RMB/ ton, up or down+0.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
Industrial chain: In terms of upstream, the domestic propylene market has turned from rising to falling recently. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of last week was 7,780 RMB/ ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7,620 RMB/ ton, with a weekly decline of 2.06%, up 2.42% from 30 days ago. International oil prices fell continuously, and cost support was weak. The mainstream downstream is weak, further holding back the propylene market. In addition to the expected resumption of production of propylene unit under early maintenance and the production of new unit, the supply tends to increase and the on-site inventory increases. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene market is becoming stronger, and manufacturers are willing to reduce prices and take goods. It is expected that propylene will continue its weak downward trend in the near future.
Propylene price fell back, crude oil price fluctuated at the far end, and PP cost was generally supported after the festival. In terms of industry load, in the first half of this month, the maintenance scale of PP polymerization enterprises gradually decreased by nearly a quarter, the operating rate increased, and the spot supply increased. In terms of inventory, as of the end of last week, the two barrel oil depot had nearly 740,000 tons, up from the previous year, and the social inventory and the inventory of terminal enterprises increased simultaneously. In terms of demand, it is currently the traditional peak demand season, but the overall stocking operation is not as expected, and buyers have limited acceptance of the offer after the rise within the week. The load of terminal enterprises decreased by a narrow margin. Plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises just needed to purchase to maintain production. Petrochemical plants lowered their prices in the second half of the week. The market mentality weakened, and businesses generally followed suit.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 17, the spot price of domestic fiber PP had risen in a narrow range. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8,216.67 RMB/ ton, which is +0.20% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month, and -17.00% lower than the same period last year. In the near future, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, has risen by a narrow margin, the profit of spunbonded non-woven fabric has narrowed, and the demand of terminal enterprises has fluctuated by a narrow margin. The digestion speed of non-woven terminal products is stable, and there is no improvement in consumption in the peak season on the whole. The enterprise prefers to just need to get the fiber PP replenishment. The trading and investment of fiber materials on the site is general, and the fiber material market is mainly supported by the cost side. In the short term, it may still maintain a narrow adjustment operation.
In terms of meltblown materials, after the festival, the meltblown PP market rose and then retreated. As of October 17, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9,033.33 RMB/ ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and down -11.58% year on year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China's neighboring countries has rebounded recently. After the festival, some parts of China rebounded slightly, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure was not strong, and the pulling effect on medical melt blown fabric materials was limited. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. The inventory of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP will still run sideways.
SunSirs PP analysts believe that the recent PP market generally rose and fell back, the raw propylene market ran in shock, the far upstream crude oil fluctuated, and the PP cost side was generally supported. The terminal enterprises just need to get goods, but the effect of the traditional peak season is not as expected. After the price increases, the resistance increases, causing the total inventory position of PP to rise. Both the buyer and the seller operate cautiously, and the trading on the floor needs to be improved. After the National Day Holidays, the supply side is under pressure, and it is expected that there will be some adjustment in China PP market.
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