May 12, 2022
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, from May 1 to 10, the average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China's East China market fell from 12512 RMB/ton to 12100 RMB/ton, and then rebounded to 12420 RMB/ton, of which the lowest point was 12100 RMB/ton on the 9th, and the highest point was the mainstream price during the May Day holiday at the beginning of this month.
Industrial focus: on the supply side, the rainfall in Thailand's production area during May Day is unfavorable to rubber cutting, the output of new rubber is low, and is gradually increasing. Vietnam's output is normal, but its export is not much; At present, the main production areas in China have been cut one after another. Although the production area in Hainan has been delayed, it is expected to increase the quantity one after another by the end of May, and the entry of new rubber into the market may be postponed to June. On the demand side, the current consumption off-season is superimposed with the impact of public health events, the commencement of downstream product enterprises is limited, the rubber delivery in Shanghai and other places is difficult, the circulation of raw materials and finished products is partially blocked, the export demand decreases and it is difficult to recover in the short term. The slowdown of internal and external demand leads to heavy inventory of finished products of tire enterprises, high pressure to go to the warehouse, the commencement of enterprises is affected, and the procurement demand is slow. On the inventory side, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the delivery rate picked up and the warehousing rate decreased. In terms of import and export, the tense situation of containers continues, the arrival time of shipping schedule is delayed seriously, and the port transportation is not smooth, and the source of tradable goods is locally tense; According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.
Macro aspect: the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $103.09/barrel, down US $6.68 or 6.1%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $105.94/barrel, down US $6.45 or 5.7%. The continuous sharp decline of the stock market has affected the market mentality, and the epidemic prevention measures in Asia have exacerbated the market's concern about the demand prospect; In addition, the oil giant Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil in Asia and Europe in June, putting short-term pressure on oil prices.
Hot spots of this month: 1. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9, China imported 536000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2022, down 7.1% from 577000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to April 2022, China imported 2.397 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.3% over 2.367 million tons in the same period in 2021.
2. Data show that in the first quarter of 2022, Indonesia exported 540000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. From January to March, the total export of natural rubber to China was 48000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 5400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51%.
3. The latest data show that in the first four months of 2022, the rubber export volume of C ô te d'Ivoire totaled 397803 tons, an increase of 3.7% compared with 383655 tons in the same period of 2021.
4. According to the latest data, the United States imported 70.69 million tires in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. Among them, the import of passenger tires increased by 12.9% year-on-year to 40.41 million; The import of passenger car tyres increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 13.4 million; Aircraft tires increased by 63% year-on-year to 78000; Motorcycle tyres increased by 22% year-on-year to 1.03 million; Bicycle tires increased by 14% year-on-year to 3.07 million. From January to March, the United States imported 11.22 million tires from China, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, passenger tires decreased by 23% year-on-year to 690000; Passenger car tyres increased by 11.5% year-on-year to 630000.
5. On May 4, 2022, the EU ordinary court of first instance ruled that the European Commission's anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on huaka bus tires should be revoked, and the European Commission and its supporters should bear the litigation costs. The revocation effect covers the enterprises filing the lawsuit. (other litigants include representatives of more than 20 Chinese exporters such as Zhongce, triangle, Fengshen, Linglong, shuangqian, Chaoyang Langma, Shuangxing, Guilun, Sailun, Wanda Baotong, Pulin Chengshan, Wanli, GM, Hantai, Jiatong, etc.) According to relevant laws, the European Commission still has two months to decide whether to appeal the judgment. If the European Commission abandons to appeal after two months, the ruling will come into force, and the "double anti" tax paid by the importer suing the enterprise will be returned in full.
6. According to the weekly report data reported by key enterprises, the China Automobile Industry Association calculates that in April 2022, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to complete 1171000 vehicles, with a month on month decrease of 47.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.1%. From January to April, the sales volume is expected to be 7.68 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%.
7. The latest data show that in April this year, China's heavy truck market sold about 46000 vehicles, down 40% from 77000 vehicles in March and 76% from 193000 vehicles in the same period last year, with a net decrease of nearly 150000 vehicles. 46000, the lowest sales volume in April since 2007, only higher than 33500 in 2006. April this year is also the 12th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. After April, the heavy truck market from January to April 2022 achieved a total sales of 278000 vehicles, a decrease of 62% and 447000 vehicles compared with 725000 vehicles in the same period last year!
Future forecast: the output and arrival date of new rubber did not meet the expectations, and the local liquidity source was a little tight; Due to the low consumption season and high inventory pressure, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is suppressed, which is expected to be slightly supported in the short-term shock. We will focus on the impact of public health events on ship cargo imports and key domestic circulation places.